Presidential election in Poland

Poland Faces Another Election: Will the Country Stay on the Path of Liberal Reforms?

Not long ago, the Polish citizens sent a strong message: With record voter turnout in October 2023, they voted for a pro-European and pro-democratic government, thereby ending eight years period in which the government led by the Law and Justice Party (PiS) systematically curtailed freedoms and dismantled liberal democracy step by step. However, the last bastion of authoritarian PiS rule still stands: the outgoing President Andrzej Duda. His successor will be determined in the upcoming presidential elections, with the first round set to take place this coming Sunday.

While the Polish president, similar to Germany, primarily holds a representative function, his veto power could prove decisive – particularly in the first year of the new coalition government under Donald Tusk. So far, Duda has used his veto to block almost all liberalization reforms introduced by the new government. Thus, the upcoming presidential election is more than just a political showdown. It could significantly impact the fate of the Tusk administration and shape the future course of the country. In a still deeply polarized Poland, what is at stake is nothing less than the future of democracy and whether the country remains on the path to Europe or once again veers off course.

The Candidates: Traditional Opposites or a Radical?

Officially, 13 candidates are running for the highest office in the Polish state – among them, only two women. The field of candidates includes both well-known political figures and previously unknown names.

According to polls, however, three candidates dominate this year’s presidential election: Rafał Trzaskowski, Karol Nawrocki, and Sławomir Mentzen. Their political agendas could not be more different and represent the fundamental lines of conflict within Polish society – between an open, pro-European course and an increasingly nationalist-conservative narrative.

Since the beginning of the campaign, the favorite has been Rafał Trzaskowski (polling at 32.3%), the 52-year-old mayor of Warsaw and representative of the liberal Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska), embodying the hope of a complete return to democratic principles. In 2020, he ran as the challenger against the right-wing conservative incumbent Duda and narrowly missed victory. Trzaskowski is a prominent advocate of European integration and is committed to strengthening the rule of law. Surprisingly, he adopted a slightly populist tone during his campaign: Besides constantly emphasizing the protection of Polish borders and national interests, he also made the Polish pickles and waffles brand a topic of discussion, which drew strong media attention and reactions from his opponents. At the same time, he directed his attacks specifically at his biggest political opponent from the opposing camp, Karol Nawrocki.

Karol Nawrocki, a 41-year-old independent candidate supported by the Law and Justice Party (PiS), is best known as the director of the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN). Nawrocki (polling in second place with 25.2% in the first round) advocates a strictly conservative agenda and primarily appeals to the rural, Catholic electorate. His speeches are laced with nationalist rhetoric, portraying Poland as a bulwark against ‘European foreign infiltration.’ He is a political newcomer for PiS, but has managed to unite the party’s hardliners behind him, aiming to continue their nationalist-conservative governance style. However, his rhetoric remains weak, and his arguments often lack conviction. Moreover, his campaign has been overshadowed by several scandals – primarily allegations of corruption and abuse of power. Recent journalistic investigations cast a particularly questionable light on Nawrocki: He is alleged to have received an apartment as a gift from an elderly supporter under the condition of providing lifetime care, though the man now reportedly resides in a nursing home and has little to no contact with Nawrocki.

For these reasons, some polls suggest that Sławomir Mentzen could make it to the second round, scheduled for June 1 (unless one of the mentioned candidates secures more than 50% of the votes in the first round on May 18, which is considered unlikely). The 38-year-old leader of the right-libertarian party Nowa Nadzieja (New Hope) and candidate of the far-right coalition Konfederacja (Confederation) stands for a radically different course. Mentzen (who currently holds third place in the latest polls with 11.2%) is a fierce critic of the EU and advocates for a libertarian economic and socially conservative agenda. In 2019, he gained nationwide attention with his campaign slogan: “We don’t want Jews, homosexuals, abortions, taxes, and the European Union.” He demands a drastic reduction in taxes and a withdrawal from “unnecessary European obligations.”

Mentzen’s rise is primarily attributed to the discontent of young, male voters who feel unrepresented by the traditional parties. The central theme of his campaign is, in fact, the fight against the two political camps that have dominated Polish politics for years: PiS and the Civic Platform. Through this positioning, he managed to attract disillusioned voters from both camps. During the campaign, he dominated TikTok and visited more municipalities and cities than any other candidate – a strategy that earned him widespread media coverage, leading some to already see him in the presidential office. However, in the final phase of the campaign, he lost momentum, especially during televised debates where other candidates like the left-wing senator Magdalena Biejat or Sejm Speaker Szymon Hołownia (Polska 2050) managed to score points.

The Outcome is Uncertain

Since the beginning of the campaign, Trzaskowski has consistently led in the polls – but a clear victory is by no means assured. Some voters responsible for the so-called miracle of October 15, has become disillusioned after one and a half years of government under Donald Tusk. The disappointed voters of the pro-democratic coalition have withdrawn, frustrated by the sluggish implementation of election promises. Whether Trzaskowski has managed to rekindle their hope remains uncertain. For Tusk and his government, this will be a critical test.

On the other hand, the PiS presents no compelling or charismatic candidate. The surprise success of Andrzej Duda, who was previously as unknown as Karol Nawrocki, is unlikely to be repeated. Nawrocki’s attempt to present himself as an independent candidate is not convincing, and the recent scandals involving him and the PiS could further weaken his prospects, even though recent polls just days before the election do not necessarily confirm this hypothesis.

Mentzen, who was recently considered the ‘black swan’ of the election, also lost traction in the final phase. He had to defend his extremist and anti-Ukrainian narratives, which are not deeply rooted enough in Polish society to win over a majority.

The latest polls suggest a duel between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki. The decisive factor will now be which candidates and voters align themselves in the second round behind Trzaskowski or Nawrocki. Mentzen has consistently positioned himself as an opponent of the major parties, but in terms of content, he is much closer to Nawrocki than to the liberal mayor of the capital. Among the other candidates, there are also several with similarly right-wing populist views. If Nawrocki manages to rally these votes, Trzaskowski urgently needs to mobilize the left-wing voters, whose support is currently anything but certain.

The race remains tight – but there is hope that Poland can shake off the last remnants of PiS rule and complete its return to the pro-democratic family of Europe. With its immense potential, the country stands at a historic turning point.